The World Bank's Decision Tree Framework
How do we better equip decision makers to face uncertainty? Which tools and options will lead to a more resilient and robust project? How can we evaluate or justify an investment with an uncertain future?
The Decision Tree Framework is a robust decision scaling approach from the World Bank that provides resource-limited project planners and program managers with a cost-effective and effort-efficient, scientifically defensible, repeatable, and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. The framework adopts a “bottom-up” approach to risk assessment that aims at a thorough understanding of a project’s vulnerabilities to climate change in the context of other nonclimate uncertainties (for example, economic, environmental, demographic, or political). It helps to identify projects that perform well across a wide range of potential future climate conditions, as opposed to seeking solutions that are optimal in expected conditions but fragile to conditions deviating from the expected.
The book, part of the World Bank's Open Knowledge Repository, can be found here. A full report on the Arun Hydropower pilot project using the DTF can be found here.
Ray, Patrick A., and Casey M. Brown. 2015. Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design: The Decision Tree Framework. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0477-9. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO
*This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.
The Knowledge Platform is designed to promote and showcase an emerging set of approaches to water resources management that address climate change and other uncertainties — increasing the use of "bottom-up approaches" through building capacity towards implementation, informing relevant parties, engaging in discussion, and creating new networks. This is an ongoing project of the Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA) funded by the World Bank Group.